Israel upping the ante
This article was written by Baran Ayguven, Policy Fellow 2023-2024, and originally appeared in The Times of Israel. The views in this article are the authors own.
This past month has marked a significant shift in Israeli foreign policy. The Israeli strike on the Houthis in Yemen is momentous. This decision places Israel in a position where, rather than merely defending itself against attacks by Iranian proxies, it is now proactively taking the fight to its enemies. Indeed, in just 24 hours, Israel has managed to eliminate both the top Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, Fuad Shukr, and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. These moves demonstrate the increasing assertiveness of Israel’s foreign policy, which has previously been constrained by concerns from allies like the United States.
Striking in the heart of Tehran has exposed serious weaknesses in Iranian defenses. This is a clear blow to Iranian credibility, especially as it has long claimed to be a regional powerhouse and security guarantor to its proxies. Indeed, even the jewel proxy in the Iranian crown seems vulnerable. Hezbollah, who have previously showcased their ability to infiltrate Israeli defenses and enter Israeli airspace with military drones are reeling from a the strike which killed Shukr, especially considering that the strike took place in their Southern Beirut stronghold.
This newfound assertiveness is also causing turmoil in Israeli domestic politics. Prime Minister Netanyahu is under considerable pressure at home. His decision to broaden the war, along with his increasingly aggressive posture, is supported by his far-right political base and coalition partners. However, there is growing pressure from the families of hostages who are unhappy with Netanyahu’s handling of the hostage deal and the ongoing postponement of the ceasefire. Qatar’s Prime Minister, who has been mediating the hostage deal, criticized the assassinations, stating that they challenge Israel’s seriousness in the negotiations. While the action might risk the already shaky hostage deal, it is also important to note that negotiations have been deteriorating for the past week, with both sides blaming each other for delays and changing conditions.
Netanyahu’s recent US trip likely influenced his decisions. The standing ovations he received following his speech in Congress certainly garnered him some political support from the US Senate. Perhaps there was a glimpse of the future in Netanyahu’s speech in Washington, where he railed against Hezbollah and insisted that Israel’s fight was also the US’s fight. While his actions risk backlash from both the left-leaning American public, who are already critical of his actions in Gaza, and an administration preparing for an election, it could also be argued that Netanyahu is taking a moderate path compared to his other options. The ongoing debate over whether Israel will launch a ground invasion of Lebanon is highly unpopular worldwide. So, this strategy of targeted assassinations may be Israel’s way of demonstrating deterrence and satisfying Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, while also avoiding further criticism from the international community. While the US public may still be critical of Israeli assassinations overseas due to civilian casualties, this is easier to support than full invasions, which would clearly cause many more civilian casualties.
The stakes are high, with significant consequences for regional stability. Now that Israel has made its move, we will be waiting to see how Hezbollah and Iran will respond. Hezbollah is likely to be concerned about the loss of its deterrence, and Iran is clearly uncomfortable with Israel’s ability to operate within Iranian territory. While it is unlikely that either side would prefer open war, it is expected that both will respond with limited airstrikes. In recent years, military drone strikes have become the preferred method for showing deterrence and reaction, as seen in the ongoing air skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel, and during the Israel-Iran drone crisis in April. This makes military drones a likely choice for both sides to demonstrate their response.
The recent actions by Israel mark a decisive shift in its approach to regional security by demonstrating its willingness to engage its adversaries directly and with significant force. This bold strategy, while asserting Israel’s military superiority, has also introduced new uncertainties into an already tense region. The effects of these operations will likely be felt in the coming weeks, as Hezbollah and Iran plan their responses. It remains to be seen how successful this bet by Netanyahu was. As Israel navigates its ongoing internal political tensions and international criticism, the delicate balance of deterrence and limitation will be critical in shaping the future of the Middle East. Whether these actions will stabilize the region or provoke further conflict remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the stakes for the region have rarely been higher.
