REPORT: Houthis and Israel - what is behind the latest escalation?
Over the last week, hostilities have escalated between the Houthi Rebels, an Iran-backed militant group, and Israel. Whilst a ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and rumours continue to spiral regarding a potential hostage/ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza, many are asking: why are the Houthis choosing this moment to escalate tensions with Israel?
Who are the Houthis?
The Houthis are a Shia-Islamist rebel group, who are backed by Iran and govern approximately one-third of Yemen's land and two-thirds of its population. They initiated their uprising against the internationally acknowledged government in 2011, successfully overturning it in 2014. [1] Iran's backing of the Houthis commenced in approximately 2009, and in the following years, this support included both weaponry and military expertise. [2]
The Houthis have long sought to disrupt Western interest, and have come into direct conflict with Israel and Western allies even before October 7th. [3]
Timeline of events
Since October 7th, the Houthis have orchestrated hundreds of attacks in the Red Sea, halting shipping lanes. They have also launched more than 200 missiles targeting Israel. [4]
On Monday the 16th of December, the Houthis targeted Central Israel with a ballistic missile sent from Houthi-controlled Yemen, forcing Israeli civilians into bomb shelters. No damage or injuries were reported. [5] There was a further provocation during the early hours of Thursday 19th of December, when another Houthi missile was fired at Israel. This was intercepted, but significant damage was caused to a school in Ramat Gan, Tel Aviv.
The IDF opted to respond to these missile attacks, carrying out strikes of their own targeting ports on the Red Sea and energy infrastructure in Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen. The IDF carried out additional strikes at the Ras Issa oil terminal, the port of Hudaydah and at power stations in Haiz and Dhaban. According to Houthi media, these counter-strikes caused casualties, and local electricity supply was disrupted. [6]
In an act of further escalation, on Saturday 21st December, the Houthis fired a hypersonic ballistic missile labelled ‘Palestine 2’ at a residential area in Tel Aviv which saw 16 people sustain minor injuries. [7]
Damage to a school in Central Israel, caused by a Houthi missile. Photo credit: Ramat Gan Municipality.
Why now?
Iran's ‘axis of resistance’ has been dealt severe blows since October 7th, with many of their proxies joining the war against Israel.
There are reports of over 75% of Hamas battalions in Gaza being dismantled by the IDF, with significant high profile Hamas militants and leaders being eliminated. [8]
Similar can be said of Hezbollah in Lebanon, who have seen their leadership structure demolished and their fighting numbers seriously decreased following IDF/IAF action on the battlefield and in special operations, like the pager attack. This attack alone resulted in the Iranian proxy group losing thousands of fighters to injury.
More recently, the success of rebel groups in Syria has further weakened Iran’s network of proxy groups, given that the former President of Syria, Bashar Al-Assad, provided Iran with a land corridor through Syria, to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon. [9]
That leaves the Houthis. Though influenced by Iran, the rebel group do have their own motivations and considerations - both in terms of their ideology and why they seek to harm Israel, but also in terms of the tactics they deploy. “The Houthis may be making calculations figuring that they can sustain an Israeli retribution once every few months while continuing to attack Israel, unlike Gaza and Lebanon, where the Israeli air force can conduct hundreds of sorties a day, this is not the case in Yemen, which is approximately 2,000 kilometers away,” said Dr. Nachum Shiloh, a research fellow from the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. [10]
From Iran’s perspective, with much of its terror network debilitated or tied to ceasefire terms, this leaves the Houthis as the remaining proxy with flexibility to launch attacks on Israel. Simultaneously, the Houthis’ own calculations determine this moment to be an opportunity to launch another round of escalations.
What next?
After the attack launched by the Houthis on December 19th, Israeli officials warned that any further escalation will result in Israel targeting top Houthis leaders, threatening to exact a heavy price on the group. [11] This warning, and the risk of wavering Iranian support amid reports of an energy crisis, power shortages and fuel shortages in Iran, [12] has evidently not yet changed the equation, with the Houthis still feeling a sense of confidence.
The IDF will likely seek to change that - whether through further counter-strikes, or by direct strikes on Iran, thus targeting the principal as well as the proxy.
Sources:
Kalie Robinson, "Iran’s Support of the Houthis: What to Know," Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/irans-support-houthis-what-know
Faozi Al-Goidi, "Iran’s Role in the Yemen War: Real Influence and Regional Gains," Middle Eastern Council On Global Affairs. https://mecouncil.org/publication_chapters/irans-role-in-the-yemen-war-real-influence-and-regional-gains/
Zachary Cohen, Richard Roth, and Elise Labott, "Haley: Missile Debris ‘Proof’ of Iran’s UN Violations," CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/14/politics/haley-us-evidence-iran-yemen-rebels/index.html
Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi, "Houthi Shipping Attacks: Patterns and Expectations for 2025," The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/houthi-shipping-attacks-patterns-and-expectations-2025#:~:text=Using%20various%20types%20of%20weapons,Washington%20Institute's%20maritime%20incident%20tracker
Emanuel Fabian, "Houthi Ballistic Missile Triggers Sirens in Tel Aviv and Across Central Israel," The Times of Israel. https://www.timesofisrael.com/houthi-ballistic-missile-triggers-sirens-in-tel-aviv-and-across-central-israel/amp/
David Gritten, "Israel Strikes Houthi Targets in Yemen After Missile Attack," BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6zxy55pyro.amp
Maya Gur Arieh and Sam Halpern, "Houthi ‘Hypersonic Missile’ Slams Into Tel Aviv Area, Sixteen Lightly Wounded," The Jerusalem Post. https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-834308
Seth J. Frantzman, "Israel’s War Cabinet Charts Next Step in Gaza," Foundation for Defense of Democracies. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/02/06/israels-war-cabinet-charts-next-steps-in-gaza/
Alan Yuhas and Dayana Iwaza, "Hezbollah Loses Supply Route Through Syria, in Blow to It and Iran," The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/world/middleeast/hezbollah-supply-route-syria.html
Keren Setton, "Experts Say Houthis See ‘Little to Lose’ as Missile Threat Persists and Israel Considers Retaliation," The Media Line. https://themedialine.org/top-stories/experts-say-houthis-see-little-to-lose-as-missile-threat-persists-and-israel-considers-retaliation/
David Gritten, "Israel Strikes Houthi Targets in Yemen After Missile Attack," BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6zxy55pyro.amp
"Iran Faces Energy Crisis with Widespread Closures, Fuel Shortages," Voice of America English News. https://www.voanews.com/amp/voa-persian-iran-faces-energy-crisis-with-widespread-closures-fuel-shortages-/7903878.html
