REPORT: Houthi Escalation - The attack on Tel Aviv
1) What happened?
Friday 19th July marked the first time that a Houthi drone took a life in Israel. In the early hours of Friday morning, a UAV suicide drone sent by Houthi Rebels bypassed Israeli air defences over the Mediterranean Sea and struck an apartment building in Tel Aviv. The attack, which resulted in one death and ten injuries, is believed to have been caused by a failure in IAF interception methods. However, some experts argue that the problem could be more serious. After all, the Houthi drone managed to bypass not only Israeli air defence systems, but also those of its allies, such as Egypt, the UK, and the US, with none noticing the breach.
This is of course not the first attack by the Houthis on Israeli soil. Since the start of the war in Gaza, the Houthis have launched around 200 attacks, according to a statement by Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Additionally, since the start of the war, Israeli maritime trade ships and those of its allies have been under continuous attack by Houthi missiles and drone strikes. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated that the drone used in the latest attack is an enhanced version of the Iranian Samad-3 suicide drone, modified for longer distances, allowing it to travel extended distances to Israel. Iran, a long-time supplier of weapons to its proxies, has been suspected of providing the Houthis with suicide drones and missiles even before the Gaza war. To learn more about Houthi drone terrorism, read this article by Pinsker Centre Policy Fellow, Baran Ayguven.
2) How did Israel respond?
In response to the drone attack in Tel Aviv, Israel directly responded for the first time by launching airstrikes into Yemen. The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) said that it hit “military targets of the Houthi terrorist regime” in the Yemeni port city of Hodeida. Israeli military officials further reported that the strikes had a 'dual use' of both hitting the City's energy infrastructure and hitting the main supply route for Iranian weapons deliveries to the Houthi rebels. Houthi-linked media outlets reported that the strikes killed 3 people and injured over 80, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that “anyone who harms us will pay a very heavy price for their aggression.” He has similarly called for greater pressure on Tehran and its proxies from the international community. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, condemned the Israeli attacks.
3) How has Houthi activity been deterred in the past? How successful was coalition action?
Following the Israeli strike, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that it was an illustration that “there is no place that the long arm of Israel will not reach.” Indeed, the Hodeidah strike was the Israeli Air Force’s farthest attack mission ever. Yet it is unclear that this will be a sufficient deterrent, as just hours after the strike, the Houthis fired a missile at the Israeli Red Sea port of Eilat, intercepted by Israel’s Arrow anti-missile system.
Senior Israeli sources have anonymously reported that because the Houthis have “been at war with all their surroundings for many years and know how to absorb bombs and casualties”, the “usual rules of deterrence” do not apply and “Only a great deal of damage will deter them.” Israel may have hoped previously that the Houthis would be effectively deterred by coalition forces, particularly given its current engagement with other Iranian proxies, namely Hamas and Hezbollah. Engagement with the Houthis now seems necessary, despite possibly shifting attention from enemies nearer their border and taking up resources. Indeed, it raises further questions regarding whether Israeli focus should move directly to Tehran.
Adam Clements, a retired army attaché for Yemen suggested that the strike may have had more impact on ordinary Yemenis, as opposed to the Houthi's ability to launch attacks on the Red Sea or Israel. Similarly, it may have simultaneously bolstered the Houthis popularity, amongst the pro-Palestinian population, with the Houthis pledging a “huge” retaliatory response. Whether this will materialise and what this will be remains to be seen.
4) What does this mean for regional escalation?
Israel's response to the attack marks a shift in its foreign policy, indicating a more proactive stance against the Iranian threat via being more aggressive against Iranian proxies. This strategy aims to establish deterrence but has yet to show any tangible results. As seen following the port attack, the Houthis do not appear to be showing any hesitancy. They instead promised retaliation, expressed by Hizam al-Assad, a member of the Houthi’s political bureau. UN officials have also stated their concerns about potential escalation, highlighting the risk of increased Houthi attacks on global shipping and a rise in cross-border conflicts between Israel and the Houthis.
Nevertheless, Israel's action further illustrates its intention to more directly challenge Iranian activities in the MENA region. After the attack on the Houthi port, Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Israel Katz declared on Twitter that Israel would respond to any threat against it. He also called for further sanctions against Iran, labelling it as the primary source of the region's instability. Indeed, during his address to Congress on the 24th of July, Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasised the Iranian threat to Israel and the rest of the world. Netanyahu declared that “our fight is your fight” when it comes to the issue of deterring Iran.
